Not in very distant past.... hardly one week back... my prediction was 'AAP can't live long'. That seems to be nearing very fast. If some thing raises very quickly, it short lives. The law of Nature. The chances of AAP surviving in its present form are very bleak. Akshay Kumar of the Firstpost analysed it very simple and clear. I have discussed 'Group dynamics' in this blog earlier. According to this, to make a strong group or organisation one requires a lot of time. Individual ideologies of the members need to talk to each other and should evolve together. And it needs sufficient time for bonding ideas. If the initial differences are week then the struggle between members end smoothly. If the ideologies of the individual members have already evolved strongly in different directions and if some one tries to bring those idealists together the storm will not lost that smoothly. This was apparent when Mrinalini Sarabhai and Kumar Vishwas of AAP slammed each other. If the initial differences die down soon then there occurs in future another ideological turbulence. If the foundations are strong, those differences too can be overthrown. The concrete slab cannot become stronger if not cooled down with water and sufficient time. Same theory applies here. Foundation wise for AAP, ati-corruption plank is the only base. It suits for a social awareness organization, where it doesn't deal with huge amounts of money. But politics are highly susceptible to corruption. Any organization to succeed it requires members to display selflessness. One can't find selfless people on every street and corner. The people who joined AAP in lakhs in last few weeks can't all be anti-greedy. They all are Indians, 99% of the people in the world are greedy. 99.9% of the people in India are greedy. If AAP able to garner lakhs of party membership subscriptions and prominent people from media, business and several NGOs within days soon after its Delhi win.... how many of them are non-greedy with flexible ideologies? Does anyone really say those who all joined after Delhi win are not opportunistic? Then how one can say, if really wanted, this fragile AAP will live longer?
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